Anticipating Global Economic Turmoil

 
Fathan Qorib, Christina Desy
 
While still finding its feet after the global economic crisis in 2008, the world economic community must also make ready for future economic fluctuations. This concern is due in part to the fact that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will increase interest rates.
 
In doing so, the Fed is expected to attract more capital to the United States which will in turn cause capital flows out of other countries. Being prone to such impacts, Indonesia is encouraging its financial industries to be prepared for such circumstances, especially the banking sector as the main player in the financial market.
 
In this regard, the Minister of Finance, Chatib Basri, is recommending a number of measures be taken, one of which is strengthening Indonesia’s macro-economic indicators. By having a strong macro-economic position, Indonesia will have greater flexibility to deal with interest rate fluctuations.
 
Further preparation is being made with a determination to have the fiscal deficit at 2.2%, as is currently being discussed by the government, and applying the prudence principle to all banking activities. In the past this has been proven to be effective in overcoming periods of economic turbulence.
 
In addition to capital outflow, the Fed rate also affects the stock price index, which is closely related to inflation. As inflation increases, the stock price index has an inverse trend and decreases. As a consequence, the government remains hesitant to increase the price of subsidized-fuel because this will increase inflation.
 
Under such circumstances, Lana Soelistyaningsih, an economist from Universitas Indonesia, suggests the government needs to act immediately. Although inflation is inevitable, the government can allocate revenue from increased fuel prices to more productive sectors.
 
Sharing Mrs. Soelistyaningsih’s view, the Minister said that an increase to subsidized fuel prices should be implemented as soon as possible. Doing so would decrease Indonesia’s budget deficit which the Minister sees as creating future benefits despite consequent inflation.
 
(hot/kc)
 
Fathan Qorib, Christina Desy
 
While still finding its feet after the global economic crisis in 2008, the world economic community must also make ready for future economic fluctuations. This concern is due in part to the fact that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will increase interest rates.
 
In doing so, the Fed is expected to attract more capital to the United States which will in turn cause capital flows out of other countries. Being prone to such impacts, Indonesia is encouraging its financial industries to be prepared for such circumstances, especially the banking sector as the main player in the financial market.
 
In this regard, the Minister of Finance, Chatib Basri, is recommending a number of measures be taken, one of which is strengthening Indonesia’s macro-economic indicators. By having a strong macro-economic position, Indonesia will have greater flexibility to deal with interest rate fluctuations.
 
Further preparation is being made with a determination to have the fiscal deficit at 2.2%, as is currently being discussed by the government, and applying the prudence principle to all banking activities. In the past this has been proven to be effective in overcoming periods of economic turbulence.
 
In addition to capital outflow, the Fed rate also affects the stock price index, which is closely related to inflation. As inflation increases, the stock price index has an inverse trend and decreases. As a consequence, the government remains hesitant to increase the price of subsidized-fuel because this will increase inflation.
 
Under such circumstances, Lana Soelistyaningsih, an economist from Universitas Indonesia, suggests the government needs to act immediately. Although inflation is inevitable, the government can allocate revenue from increased fuel prices to more productive sectors.
 
Sharing Mrs. Soelistyaningsih’s view, the Minister said that an increase to subsidized fuel prices should be implemented as soon as possible. Doing so would decrease Indonesia’s budget deficit which the Minister sees as creating future benefits despite consequent inflation.
 
(hot/kc)
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