General Election Contributes Less than Expected to Economic Growth

 
Fathan Qorib, Jazmi Adlan Bohari
 
Bank Indonesia (BI) has revised its economic growth target for this year from 5.8 – 6.2 percent to 5.5 – 5.9 percent. This has arisen as consumption levels related to campaign activities for the 2014  have been less than in the previous election in 2009.
 
Solikin M. Juhro, Director of the Monetary Economic Policy Department at BI, said that BI was expecting that the general election, including growth in the transport and telecommunication sectors, would contribute 0.2 percent to national economic growth.
 
However, these expectations were not met and the reality has been somewhat different.  Due to there being fewer political parties and legislative candidates, consumption during the campaign was not as high as in 2009 election.
 
In addition, the General Election Commission (KPU) and the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), also warned all general election participants to limit the use of their funds. Consequently, this led to a general decrease in consumption for posters, stickers, and other campaign materials.
 
Based on these factors and an evaluation conducted by BI, the contribution of the general election to domestic growth will reach 0.1, necessitating a revision to the national economic target estimates of BI.
 
“The items which promoted campaign activities in the election are not as high as five years ago,” said Mr. Juhro.
 
Further commenting on the general election, Mr. Juhro said that a new and popular leader may, however, stimulate positive responses from the capital markets. According to him, such an individual will attract investors to Indonesia.
 
“Sentiment in the capital markets depends on the public perception of the new leader and the new leader’s character. If the individual is sufficiently popular, this will trigger positive sentiment” he said.
 
Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, Director of the Danareksa Research Institute, said that in general the election in Indonesia is triggering better economic foundations. However, even stronger economic foundations are a result of good monetary policy, not the election itself.
 
“Rupiah tends to be stronger and the stock market tends to rise during these time,” he concluded.
 
(hot/kc)
 
Fathan Qorib, Jazmi Adlan Bohari
 
Bank Indonesia (BI) has revised its economic growth target for this year from 5.8 – 6.2 percent to 5.5 – 5.9 percent. This has arisen as consumption levels related to campaign activities for the 2014  have been less than in the previous election in 2009.
 
Solikin M. Juhro, Director of the Monetary Economic Policy Department at BI, said that BI was expecting that the general election, including growth in the transport and telecommunication sectors, would contribute 0.2 percent to national economic growth.
 
However, these expectations were not met and the reality has been somewhat different.  Due to there being fewer political parties and legislative candidates, consumption during the campaign was not as high as in 2009 election.
 
In addition, the General Election Commission (KPU) and the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), also warned all general election participants to limit the use of their funds. Consequently, this led to a general decrease in consumption for posters, stickers, and other campaign materials.
 
Based on these factors and an evaluation conducted by BI, the contribution of the general election to domestic growth will reach 0.1, necessitating a revision to the national economic target estimates of BI.
 
“The items which promoted campaign activities in the election are not as high as five years ago,” said Mr. Juhro.
 
Further commenting on the general election, Mr. Juhro said that a new and popular leader may, however, stimulate positive responses from the capital markets. According to him, such an individual will attract investors to Indonesia.
 
“Sentiment in the capital markets depends on the public perception of the new leader and the new leader’s character. If the individual is sufficiently popular, this will trigger positive sentiment” he said.
 
Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, Director of the Danareksa Research Institute, said that in general the election in Indonesia is triggering better economic foundations. However, even stronger economic foundations are a result of good monetary policy, not the election itself.
 
“Rupiah tends to be stronger and the stock market tends to rise during these time,” he concluded.
 
(hot/kc)
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