The Weakening of Rupiah?s Exchange Rate is Reasonable, Economist Says

Fitri Novia Heriani, Robert Sidauruk

Several experts are of the view that the current weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar to the  Rp 10,000 level is reasonable. This figure, according to experts, is still in line with current domestic economic conditions.

One of these experts is Destry Damayanti, Chief Economist at Bank Mandiri. Destry believes that the current exchange rate is due to the high demand for the US dollar for export transport payments and necessities.

In these circumstances, Destry contended that Indonesia has limited options to ensure the availability of US dollars in the market.

“Domestic demand for US dollars does not move linear to supply,” Destry added.

In response to recent actions by Bank Indonesia, Destry is of the view that BI is quite aggressive in using monetary instruments to maintain the rupiah’s exchange rate.

The increase of the BI rate by 75 bps over the past two months followed by an increase in the Fasbi rate is expected to normalize the exchange rate.

Another effective measure taken by BI according to Destry is the policy to establish the progressive Loan to Value (LTV) ratios for home mortgage loans (Kredit Pemilikan Rumah) and apartment mortgage loans (Kredit Pemilikan Apartemen).

“With the new policy on the BI rate and progressive LTV ratios, banks will be more cautious in granting loans and consider sensitivity to inflation and the rupiah’s exchange rate,” Destry added.

However, Destry believes that the weakening of rupiah may still continue for some time into the future because of the Government’s plan to conduct high importsof oil in the near future.

“In anticipating of the importation, the Government must issue progressive policies for the real and fiscal sectors,” Destry suggested.

(hot/kc)

Fitri Novia Heriani, Robert Sidauruk

Several experts are of the view that the current weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar to the  Rp 10,000 level is reasonable. This figure, according to experts, is still in line with current domestic economic conditions.

One of these experts is Destry Damayanti, Chief Economist at Bank Mandiri. Destry believes that the current exchange rate is due to the high demand for the US dollar for export transport payments and necessities.

In these circumstances, Destry contended that Indonesia has limited options to ensure the availability of US dollars in the market.

“Domestic demand for US dollars does not move linear to supply,” Destry added.

In response to recent actions by Bank Indonesia, Destry is of the view that BI is quite aggressive in using monetary instruments to maintain the rupiah’s exchange rate.

The increase of the BI rate by 75 bps over the past two months followed by an increase in the Fasbi rate is expected to normalize the exchange rate.

Another effective measure taken by BI according to Destry is the policy to establish the progressive Loan to Value (LTV) ratios for home mortgage loans (Kredit Pemilikan Rumah) and apartment mortgage loans (Kredit Pemilikan Apartemen).

“With the new policy on the BI rate and progressive LTV ratios, banks will be more cautious in granting loans and consider sensitivity to inflation and the rupiah’s exchange rate,” Destry added.

However, Destry believes that the weakening of rupiah may still continue for some time into the future because of the Government’s plan to conduct high importsof oil in the near future.

“In anticipating of the importation, the Government must issue progressive policies for the real and fiscal sectors,” Destry suggested.

(hot/kc)

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